Rapid Ecosystem Change at the Southern Limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park

Northern protected areas guard against habitat and species loss but are themselves highly vulnerable to environmental change due their fixed spatial boundaries. In the low Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park (TMNP) of Canada, widespread greening has recently occurred alongside warming temperatures regional declines in caribou. Little is known, however, about how biophysical controls mediate plant responses climate warming, available observational data limited temporal scope. this study, we investigated drivers land cover for 9700 km2 extent park using satellite remote sensing geostatistical modelling. Random forest classification was used hindcast simulate four different types from 1985 2019 with topographic surface reflectance imagery (Landsat archive). The resulting maps, addition biotic variables, were then predict where future shrub expansion likely occur a binomial regression framework. Land hindcasts showed 235% increase 105% wet vegetation 1985/89 2015/19. Shrub persistent displaced southern, low-elevation areas, whereas expanded formerly dry, mid-elevations. predictive model identified both (initial class, number surrounding neighbors), variables (elevation, latitude, distance coast) as strong predictors expansion. A further 51% expected by 2039/43 relative 2014 reference data. Establishing long-term monitoring plots within TMNP rapid predicted will help validate observations improve our understanding consequences abiotic components tundra ecosystem, including important cultural keystone species.